Cognitive dissonance

The USDA has released the annual crop production estimates for 2009.

The numbers show “record” production.

I call B.S.

I hope I’m wrong, but here’s one reason I’m skeptical.

ETA: Here’s another. The official government reporting is 180 degrees opposite of real-time reports on the ground.

Somebody is lying. I’ve got a bad feeling about this.

10 Responses

  1. This is not good. Time to stock up, I guess.

  2. This report is more market analysts, not for the general public. The only way we will ever know if it is true or not is if the market reacts differently than this report indicates it should.

  3. PIMF=”more for”

  4. The market skeptic article talked about that. It’s hard to figure, unless there is an attempt to obscure the poor harvest numbers in order to keep the treasury bubble inflated.

    • I read most/much of what they wrote, and to be honest, I got kind of a weird vibe from them.
      We shall see what we shall see.

  5. “Normally food prices should have already shot higher months ago, leading to lower food consumption and bringing the global food supply/demand situation back into balance. This never happened because the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), instead of adjusting production estimates down to reflect decreased production, adjusted estimates upwards to match increasing demand from china. In this way, the USDA has brought supply and demand back into balance (on paper) and temporarily delayed a rise in food prices by ensuring a catastrophe in 2010.” …

    “The USDA is terrorized by the implications of higher food prices for the US economy, most likely because it knows the immediate consequence of sharply higher food will be the collapse of the US Treasury market and the dollar, as desperate governments and central banks dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports.”

  6. I had a conversation with a great uncle (Mom’s uncle by marriage) over 30 years ago. Uncle Norris had a 6th grade education, but was a very successful farmer. He had a farm in what are now the northwestern suburbs of DC in Maryland, up near Gettysburg. He was childless, as they could not have children, and when he retired, no one would buy his farm as a farm, so he had to sell it to a developer. At his funeral, I went by the ‘farm’ and saw a subdivision with streets and houses. The farm house and barn had been preserved, as part of his deal, but the farm itself, where I had ran through Silver Queen cornfields and climbed around Holstein milk cows in that barn, was no more. I literally cried.

    Anyway, back in 1978, this was his take, and I have never forgotten the conversation. Norris said that there is a food crisis coming. He told me that farms are being covered over with concrete at an alarming rate as no one wants to do the hard work that farming requires (nor live with the risk the economic vagaries that farm production create), and once you cover up the soil, that farmland is lost forever.

    Where I grew up, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake used to have quite large farming areas. Now, they too are gone, built over with subdivisions. I’ve seen the same scenario play out in the farming areas of New Jersey (The ‘Garden’ State) and Connecticut.

    People do not understand how much farmland is lost every year. It doesn’t seem to be on anyone’s radar. One can take the following admonition by Mark Twain and apply it to farmland: Buy land: God’s not making any more of that. The adage holds doubly true for arable farmland.

    We were once the most productive farming nation in the world, able to not only feed oursleves but a large part of the world as well. I have no doubt that those days are drawing to a close, and that we will be more like Zimbabwe than the America of the recent past.

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